Global age-sex-specific fertility, mortality, healthy life expectancy (HALE), and population estimates in 204 countries and territories, 1950-2019: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
Por:
Wang, Haidong, Abbas, Kaja M., Abbasifard, Mitra, Abbasi-Kangevari, Mohsen, Abbastabar, Hedayat, Abd-Allah, Foad, Abdelalim, Ahmed, Abolhassani, Hassan, Abreu, Lucas Guimaraes, Abrigo, Michael R. M., Abushouk, Abdelrahman I., Adabi, Maryam, Adair, Tim, Adebayo, Oladimeji M., Adedeji, Isaac Akinkunmi, Adekanmbi, Victor, Adeoye, Abiodun Moshood, Adetokunboh, Olatunji O., Advani, Shailesh M., Afshin, Ashkan, Aghaali, Mohammad, Agrawal, Anurag, Ahmadi, Keivan, Ahmadieh, Hamid, Ahmed, Muktar Beshir, Al-Aly, Ziyad, Alam, Khurshid, Alam, Tahiya, Alanezi, Fahad Mashhour, Alanzi, Turki M., Alcalde-Rabanal, Jacqueline Elizabeth, Ali, Muhammad, Alicandro, Gianfranco, Alijanzadeh, Mehran, Alinia, Cyrus, Alipour, Vahid, Alizade, Hesam, Aljunid, Syed Mohamed, Allebeck, Peter, Almadi, Majid Abdulrahman Hamad, Almasi-Hashiani, Amir, Al-Mekhlafi, Hesham M., Altirkawi, Khalid A., Alumran, Arwa Khalid, Alvis-Guzman, Nelson, Amini-Rarani, Mostafa, Aminorroaya, Arya, Amit, Arianna Maever L., Ancuceanu, Robert, Andrei, Catalina Liliana, Androudi, Sofia, Angus, Colin, Anjomshoa, Mina, Ansari, Fereshteh, Ansari, Iman, Ansari-Moghaddam, Alireza, Antonio, Carl Abelardo T., Antony, Catherine M., Anvari, Davood, Appiah, Seth Christopher Yaw, Arabloo, Jalal, Arab-Zozani, Morteza, Aravkin, Aleksandr Y., Aremu, Olatunde, Arnlov, Johan, Aryal, Krishna K., Asadi-Pooya, Ali A., Asgari, Samaneh, Jafarabadi, Mohammad Asghari, Atteraya, Madhu Sudhan, Ausloos, Marcel, Avila-Burgos, Leticia, Avokpaho, Euripide Frinel Gbenato Arthur, Quintanilla, Beatriz Paulina Ayala, Ayano, Getinet, Ayanore, Martin Amogre, Azarian, Ghasem, Babaee, Ebrahim, Badiye, Ashish D., Bagli, Eleni, Bahrami, Mohammad Amin, Bakhtiari, Ahad, Balassyano, Shelly, Banach, Maciej, Banik, Palash Chandra, Barker-Collo, Suzanne Lyn, Barnighausen, Till Winfried, Barzegar, Akbar, Basu, Sanjay, Baune, Bernhard T., Bayati, Mohsen, Bazmandegan, Gholamreza, Bedi, Neeraj, Bell, Michellr L., Bennett, Derrick A., Bensenor, Isabela M., Berhe, Kidanemaryam, Berman, Adam E., Bertolacci, Gregory J., Bhageerathy, Reshmi, Bhala, Neeraj, Bhattacharyya, Krittika, Bhutta, Zulfiqar A., Bijani, Ali, Biondi, Antonio, Bisanzio, Donal, Bisignano, Catherine, Biswas, Raaj Kishore, Bjrge, Tone, Bohlouli, Somayeh, Bohluli, Mehdi, Bolla, Srinivasa Rao Rao, Borzi, Antonio Maria, Borzouei, Shiva, Brady, Oliver J., Braithwaite, Dejana, Brauer, Michael, Briko, Andrey Nikolaevich, Briko, Nikolay Ivanovich, Bumgarner, Blair R., Nagaraja, Sharath Burugina, Butt, Zahid A., dos Santos, Florentino Luciano Caetano, Cai, Tianji, Callender, Charlton S. K. H., Camera, Luis L. A. Alberto, Campos-Nonato, Ismael R., Cardenas, Rosario, Carreras, Giulia, Carrero, Juan J., Carvalho, Felix, Castaldelli-Maia, Joao Mauricio, Castelpietra, Giulio, Castro, Franz, Catala-Lopez, Ferran, Cederroth, Christopher R., Cerin, Ester, Chattu, Vijay Kumar, Chin, Ken Lee, Chu, Dinh-Toi, Ciobanu, Liliana G., Cirillo, Massimo, Comfort, Haley, Costa, Vera Marisa, Cowden, Richard G., Cromwell, Elizabeth A., Croneberger, Andrew J., Cunningham, Matthew, Dahlawi, Saad M. A., Damiani, Giovanni, D'Amico, Emanuele, Dandona, Lalit, Dandona, Rakhi, Dargan, Paul I., Darwesh, Aso Mohammad, Daryani, Ahmad, Das Gupta, Rajat, das Neves, Jose, Davletov, Kairat, De Leo, Diego, Denova-Gutierrez, Edgar, Deribe, Kebede, Dervenis, Nikolaos, Desai, Rupak, Dhungana, Govinda Prasad, da Silva, Diana Dias, Diaz, Daniel, Dippenaar, Ilse N., Djalalinia, Shirin, Do, Hoa Thi, Dokova, Klara, Doku, David Teye, Dorostkar, Fariba, Doshi, Chirag P., Doshmangir, Leila, Doyle, Kerrie E., Dubljanin, Eleonora, Duraes, Andre Rodrigues, Edvardsson, David, Effiong, Andem, El Sayed, Iman, El Tantawi, Maha, Elbarazi, Iffat, El-Jaafary, Shaimaa I., Emamian, Mohammad Hassan, Eskandarieh, Sharareh, Esmaeilzadeh, Firooz, Estep, Kara, Farahmand, Mohammad, Faraj, Anwar, Fareed, Mohammad, Faridnia, Roghiyeh, Faro, Andre, Farzadfar, Farshad, Fattahi, Nazir, Fazaeli, Ali Akbar, Fazlzadeh, Mehdi, Feigin, Valery L., Fereshtehnejad, Seyed-Mohammad, Fernandes, Eduarda, Ferreira, Manuela L., Filip, Irina, Fischer, Florian, Flohr, Carsten, Foigt, Nataliya A., Folayan, Morenike Oluwatoyin, Fomenkov, Artem Alekseevich, Freitas, Marisa, Fukumoto, Takeshi, Fuller, John E., Furtado, Joao M., Gad, Mohamed M., Gakidou, Emmanuela, Gallus, Silvano, Gebrehiwot, Abiyu Mekonnen, Gebremedhin, Ketema Bizuwork, Gething, Peter W., Ghamari, Farhad, Ghashghaee, Ahmad, Gholamian, Asadollah, Gilani, Syed Amir, Gitimoghaddam, Mojgan, Glushkova, Ekaterina Vladimirovna, Gnedovskaya, Elena V., Gopalani, Sameer Vali, Goulart, Alessandra C., Gugnani, Harish Chander, Guo, Yuming, Gupta, Rajeev, Gupta, Subodh Sharan, Haagsma, Juanita A., Haj-Mirzaian, Arvin, Haj-Mirzaian, Arya, Halvaei, Iman, Hamadeh, Randah R., Abdullah, Kanaan Hamagharib, Han, Chieh, Handiso, Demelash Woldeyohannes, Hankey, Graeme J., Haririan, Hamidreza, Haro JM, Hasaballah, Ahmed I., Hassanipour, Soheil, Hassankhani, Hadi, Hay, Simon I., Heibati, Behzad, Heidari-Soureshjani, Reza, Henny, Kiana, Henry, Nathaniel J., Herteliu, Claudiu, Heydarpour, Fatemeh, Hole, Michael K., Hoogar, Praveen, Hosgood, H. Dean, Hossain, Naznin, Hosseinzadeh, Mehdi, Hostiuc, Mihaela, Hostiuc, Sorin, Househ, Mowafa, Hoy, Damian G., Hu, Guoqing, Huda, Tanvir M., Ibitoye, Segun Emmanuel, Ikuta, Kevin S., Ilesanmi, Olayinka Stephen, Ilic, Irena M., Ilic, Milena D., Imani-Nasab, Mohammad Hasan, Islam, MdMohaimenul, Iso, Hiroyasu, Iwu, Chinwe Juliana, Jaafari, Jalil, Jacobsen, Kathryn H., Jahagirdar, Deepa, Jahanmehr, Nader, Jalali, Amir, Jalilian, Farzad, James, Spencer L., Janjani, Hosna, Jenabi, Ensiyeh, Jha, Ravi Prakash, Jha, Vivekanand, Ji, John S., Jonas, Jost B., Joukar, Farahnaz, Jozwiak, Jacek Jerzy, Jurisson, Mikk, Kabir, Zubair, Kalani, Hamed, Kalankesh, Leila R., Kamiab, Zahra, Kanchan, Tanuj, Kapoor, Neeti, Karch, Andre, Karimi, Salah Eddin, Karimi, Seyed Asaad, Kassebaum, Nicholas J., Katikireddi, Srinivasa Vittal, Kawakami, Norito, Kayode, Gbenga A., Keiyoro, Peter Njenga, Keller, Cathleen, Khader, Yousef Saleh, Khalid, Nauman, Khan, Ejaz Ahmad, Khan, Maseer, Khang, Young-Ho, Khater, Amir M., Khater, Mona M., Khazaei, Salman, Khazaie, Habibolah, Khodayari, Mohammad Taghi, Khubchandani, Jagdish, Kianipour, Neda, Kim, Cho-il, Kim, Young-Eun, Kim, Yun Jin, Kinfu, Yohannes, Kisa, Adnan, Kisa, Sezer, Kissimova-Skarbek, Katarzyna, Kivimaki, Mika, Komaki, Hamidreza, Kopec, Jacek A., Kosen, Soewarta, Koul, Parvaiz A., Koyanagi A, Kravchenko, Michael A., Krishan, Kewal, Krohn, Kris J., Defo, Barthelemy Kuate, Kumar, G. Anil, Kumar, Manasi, Kumar, Pushpendra, Kumar, Vivek, Kusuma, Dian, Kyu, Hmwe Hmwe, La Vecchia, Carlo, Lacey, Ben, Lal, Dharmesh Kumar, Lalloo, Ratilal, Lami, Faris Hasan, Lansky, Sonia, Larson, Samantha Leigh, Larsson, Anders O., Lasrado, Savita, Lassi, Zohra S., Lazarus, Jeffrey V., Lee, Paul H., Lee, Shaun Wen Huey, Leever, Andrew T., LeGrand, Kate E., Leonardi, Matilde, Li, Shanshan, Lim, Lee-Ling, Lim, Stephen S., Linn, Shai, Lodha, Rakesh, Logroscino, Giancarlo, Lopez, Alan D., Lopukhov, Platon D., Lotufo, Paulo A., Lozano, Rafael, Lu, Alton, Lunevicius, Raimundas, Madadin, Mohammed, Maddison, Emilie R., Abd El Razek, Hassan Magdy, Abd El Razek, Muhammed Magdy, Mahasha, Phetole Walter, Mahdavi, Mokhtar Mahdavi, Malekzadeh, Reza, Mamun, Abdullah A., Manafi, Navid, Mansour-Ghanaei, Fariborz, Mansouri, Borhan, Mansournia, Mohammad Ali, Mapoma, Chabila Christopher, Martini, Santi, Martins-Melo, Francisco Rogerlandio, Masaka, Anthony, Mastrogiacomo, Claudia I., Mathur, Manu Raj, May, Erin A., McAlinden, Colm, McGrath, John J., McKee, Martin, Mehndiratta, Man Mohan, Mehri, Fereshteh, Mehta, Kala M., Meitei, Wahengbam Bigyananda, Memiah, Peter T. N., Mendoza, Walter, Menezes, Ritesh G., Mengesha, Endalkachew Worku, Mensah, George A., Meretoja, Atte, Meretoja, Tuomo J., Mestrovic, Tomislav, Michalek, Irmina Maria, Mihretie, Kebadnew Mulatu, Miller, Ted R., Mills, Edward J., Milne, George J., Mirrakhimov, Erkin M., Mirzaei, Hamed, Mirzaei, Maryam, Mirzaei-Alavijeh, Mehdi, Misganaw, Awoke Temesgen, Moazen, Babak, Moghadaszadeh, Masoud, Mohamadi, Efat, Mohammad, Dara K., Mohammad, Yousef, Mezerji, Naser Mohammad Gholi, Mohammadbeigi, Abolfazl, Mohammadian-Hafshejani, Abdollah, Mohammadpourhodki, Reza, Mohammed, Hussen, Mohammed, Shafiu, Mohebi, Farnam, Bandpei, Mohammad A. Mohseni, Mokari, Amin, Mokdad, Ali H., Momen, Natalie C., Monasta, Lorenzo, Mooney, Meghan D., Moradi, Ghobad, Moradi, Masoud, Moradi-Joo, Mohammad, Moradi-Lakeh, Maziar, Moradzadeh, Rahmatollah, Moraga, Paula, Velasquez, Ilais Moreno, Morgado-da-Costa, Joana, Morrison, Shane Douglas, Mosser, Jonathan F., Mouodi, Simin, Mousavi, Seyyed Meysam, Khaneghah, Amin Mousavi, Mueller, Ulrich Otto, Musa, Kamarul Imran, Muthupandian, Saravanan, Nabavizadeh, Behnam, Naderi, Mehdi, Nagarajan, Ahamarshan Jayaraman, Naghavi, Mohsen, Naghshtabrizi, Behshad, Naik, Gurudatta, Najafi, Farid, Nangia, Vinay, Nansseu, Jobert Richie, Ndwandwe, Duduzile Edith, Negoi, Ionut, Negoi, Ruxandra Irina, Ngunjiri, Josephine W., Nguyen, Huong Lan Thi, Nguyen, Trang Huyen, Nigatu, Yeshambel T., Nikbakhsh, Rajan, Nikpoor, Amin Reza, Nixon, Molly R., Nnaji, Chukwudi A., Nomura, Shuhei, Noubiap, Jean Jacques, Motlagh, Soraya Nouraei, Nowak, Christoph, Otoiu, Adrian, Odell, Christopher M., Oh, In-Hwan, Oladnabi, Morteza, Olagunju, Andrew T., Olusanya, Bolajoko Olubukunola, Olusanya, Jacob Olusegun, Bali, Ahmed Omar, Ong, Kanyin L., Onwujekwe, Obinna E., Ortiz, Alberto, Otstavnov, Nikita, Otstavnov, Stanislav S., Overland, Simon, Owolabi, Mayowa O., Mahesh, P. A., Padubidri, Jagadish Rao, Pakshir, Keyvan, Palladino, Raffaele, Pana, Adrian, Panda-Jonas, Songhomitra, Park, James, Pasupula, Deepak Kumar, Patel, Jenil R., Patel, Sangram Kishor, Patton, George C., Paulson, Katherine R., Toroudi, Hamidreza Pazoki, Pease, Spencer A., Peden, Amy E., Pepito, Veincent Christian Filipino, Peprah, Emmanuel K., Pereira, Alexandre, Pereira, David M., Perico, Norberto, Pigott, David M., Pilgrim, Thomas, Pilz, Tessa M., Piradov, Michael A., Pirsaheb, Meghdad, Pokhrel, Khem Narayan, Postma, Maarten J., Pourjafar, Hadi, Pourmalek, Farshad, Pourshams, Akram, Poznanska, Anna, Prada, Sergio I., Prakash, Sanjay, Preotescu, Liliana, Quazi Syed, Zahiruddin, Rabiee, Mohammad, Rabiee, Navid, Radfar, Amir, Rafiei, Alireza, Raggi, Alberto, Rahman, Muhammad Aziz, Rajabpour-Sanati, Ali, Ram, Pradhum, Ranabhat, Chhabi Lal, Rao, Sowmya J., Rasella, Davide, Rashedi, Vahid, Rastogi, Prateek, Rathi, Priya, Rawal, Lal, Remuzzi, Giuseppe, Renjith, Vishnu, Renzaho, Andre M. N., Resnikoff, Serge, Rezaei, Nima, Rezai, Mohammad sadegh, Rezapour, Aziz, Rickard, Jennifer, Roever, Leonardo, Ronfani, Luca, Roshandel, Gholamreza, Rostamian, Morteza, Rubagotti, Enrico, Rwegerera, Godfrey M., Sabour, Siamak, Saddik, Basema, Sadeghi, Ehsan, Sadeghi, Masoumeh, Moghaddam, Sahar Saeedi, Safari, Yahya, Safi, Sare, Safiri, Saeid, Sagar, Rajesh, Sahebkar, Amirhossein, Sahraian, Mohammad Ali, Sajadi, S. Mohammad, Salahshoor, Mohammad Reza, Salama, Joseph S., Salamati, Payman, Salem, Marwa R. Rashad, Salimi, Yahya, Salomon, Joshua A., Salz, Inbal, Samad, Zainab, Samy, Abdallah M., Sanabria, Juan, Santric-Milicevic, Milena M., Saraswathy, Sivan Yegnanarayana Iyer, Sartorius, Benn, Sarveazad, Arash, Sathian, Brijesh, Sathish, Thirunavukkarasu, Sattin, Davide, Saylan, Mete, Schaeffer, Lauren E., Schiavolin, Silvia, Schwebel, David C., Schwendicke, Falk, Sekerija, Mario, Senbeta, Anbissa Muleta, Senthilkumaran, Subramanian, Sepanlou, Sadaf G., Servan-Mori, Edson, Shabani, Mahsima, Shahabi, Saeed, Shahbaz, Mohammad, Shaheen, Amira A., Shaikh, Masood Ali, Shalash, Ali S., Shams-Beyranvand, Mehran, Shamsi, MohammadBagher, Shamsizadeh, Morteza, Shannawaz, Mohammed, Sharafi, Kiomars, Sharafi, Zeinab, Sharara, Fablina, Sharma, Rajesh, Shaw, David H., Sheikh, Aziz, Shin, Jae Il, Shiri, Rahman, Shrime, Mark G., Shuval, Kerem, Siabani, Soraya, Sigfusdottir, Inga Dora, Sigurvinsdottir, Rannveig, Silva, Diego Augusto Santos, Simonetti, Biagio, Simpson, Kyle E., Singh, Jasvinder A., Skiadaresi, Eirini, Skryabin, Valentin Yurievich, Soheili, Amin, Sokhan, Anton, Sorensen, Reed J. D., Soriano, Joan B., Sorrie, Muluken Bekele, Soyiri, Ireneous N., Spurlock, Emma Elizabeth, Sreeramareddy, Chandrashekhar T., Stockfelt, Leo, Stokes, Mark A., Stubbs, Jacob L., Sudaryanto, Agus, Sufiyan, Mu'awiyyah Babale, Abdulkader, Rizwan Suliankatchi, Sykes, Bryan L., Tabares-Seisdedos, Rafael, Tabb, Karen M., Tadakamadla, Santosh Kumar, Taherkhani, Amir, Tang, Muming, Taveira, Nuno, Taylor, Heather Jean, Teagle, Whitney L., Tehrani-Banihashemi, Arash, Teklehaimanot, Berhane Fseha, Tessema, Zemenu Tadesse, Thankappan, Kavumpurathu Raman, Thomas, Nihal, Thrift, Amanda G., Titova, Mariya Vladimirovna, Tohidinik, Hamid Reza, Tonelli, Marcello, Topor-Madry, Roman, Topouzis, Fotis, Tovani-Palone, Marcos Roberto Roberto, Traini, Eugenio, Tran, Bach Xuan, Travillian, Ravensara, Trias-Llimos, Sergi, Truelsen, Thomas Clement, Car, Lorainne Tudor, Unnikrishnan, Bhaskaran, Upadhyay, Era, Vacante, Marco, Vakilian, Alireza, Valdez, Pascual R., Valli, Alessandro, Vardavas, Constantine, Vasankari, Tommi Juhani, Vasconcelos, Ana Maria Nogales, Vasseghian, Yasser, Veisani, Yousef, Venketasubramanian, Narayanaswamy, Vidale, Simone, Violante, Francesco S., Vlassov, Vasily, Vollset, Stein Emil, Vos, Theo, Vujcic, Isidora S., Vukovic, Ana, Vukovic, Rade, Waheed, Yasir, Wallin, Mitchell Taylor, Walters, Magdalene K., Wang, Hongbo, Wang, Yuan-Pang, Watson, Stefanie, Wei, Jingkai, Weiss, Jordan, Weldesamuel, Girmay Teklay, Werdecker, Andrea, Westerman, Ronny, Whiteford, Harvey A., Wiangkham, Taweewat, Wiens, Kirsten E., Wijeratne, Tissa, Wiysonge, Charles Shey, Wojtyniak, Bogdan, Wolfe, Charles D. A., Wondmieneh, Adam Belay, Wool, Eve E., Wu, Ai-Min, Wu, Junjie, Xu, Gelin, Yamada, Tomohide, Yamagishi, Kazumasa, Yano, Yuichiro, Yaya, Sanni, Yazdi-Feyzabadi, Vahid, Yearwood, Jamal A., Yeheyis, Tomas Y., Yilgwan, Christopher Sabo, Yip, Paul, Yonemoto, Naohiro, Yoon, Seok-Jun, Lebni, Javad Yoosefi, York, Hunter W., Younis, Mustafa Z., Younker, Theodore Patrick, Yousefi, Zabihollah, Yousefinezhadi, Taraneh, Yousuf, Abdilahi Yousuf, Yusefzadeh, Hasan, Moghadam, Telma Zahirian, Zakzuk, Josefina, Bin Zaman, Sojib, Zamani, Mohammad, Zamanian, Maryam, Zandian, Hamed, Zhang, Zhi-Jiang, Zheng, Peng, Zhou, Maigeng, Ziapour, Arash, Murray, Christopher J. L. and GBD 2019 Demographics
Publicada:
17 oct 2020
Categoría:
Medicine (miscellaneous)
Resumen:
Background Accurate and up-to-date assessment of demographic metrics is
crucial for understanding a wide range of social, economic, and public
health issues that affect populations worldwide. The Global Burden of
Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 produced updated
and comprehensive demographic assessments of the key indicators of
fertility, mortality, migration, and population for 204 countries and
territories and selected subnational locations from 1950 to 2019.
Methods 8078 country-years of vital registration and sample registration
data, 938 surveys, 349 censuses, and 238 other sources were identified
and used to estimate age-specific fertility. Spatiotemporal Gaussian
process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate age-specific fertility
rates for 5-year age groups between ages 15 and 49 years. With
extensions to age groups 10-14 and 50-54 years, the total fertility rate
(TFR) was then aggregated using the estimated age-specific fertility
between ages 10 and 54 years. 7417 sources were used for under-5
mortality estimation and 7355 for adult mortality. ST-GPR was used to
synthesise data sources after correction for known biases. Adult
mortality was measured as the probability of death between ages 15 and
60 years based on vital registration, sample registration, and sibling
histories, and was also estimated using ST-GPR. HIV-free life tables
were then estimated using estimates of under-5 and adult mortality rates
using a relational model life table system created for GBD, which
closely tracks observed age-specific mortality rates from complete vital
registration when available. Independent estimates of HIV-specific
mortality generated by an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence
surveys and antenatal clinic serosurveillance and other sources were
incorporated into the estimates in countries with large epidemics.
Annual and single-year age estimates of net migration and population for
each country and territory were generated using a Bayesian hierarchical
cohort component model that analysed estimated age-specific fertility
and mortality rates along with 1250 censuses and 747 population registry
years. We classified location-years into seven categories on the basis
of the natural rate of increase in population (calculated by subtracting
the crude death rate from the crude birth rate) and the net migration
rate. We computed healthy life expectancy (HALE) using years lived with
disability (YLDs) per capita, life tables, and standard demographic
methods. Uncertainty was propagated throughout the demographic
estimation process, including fertility, mortality, and population, with
1000 draw-level estimates produced for each metric.
Findings The global TFR decreased from 2.72 (95% uncertainty interval
[UI] 2.66-2.79) in 2000 to 2.31 (2.17-2.46) in 2019. Global annual
livebirths increased from 134.5 million (131.5-137.8) in 2000 to a peak
of 139.6 million (133.0-146.9) in 2016. Global livebirths then declined
to 135.3 million (127.2-144.1) in 2019. Of the 204 countries and
territories included in this study, in 2019, 102 had a TFR lower than
2.1, which is considered a good approximation of replacement-level
fertility. All countries in sub-Saharan Africa had TFRs above
replacement level in 2019 and accounted for 27.1% (95% UI 26.4-27.8)
of global livebirths. Global life expectancy at birth increased from
67.2 years (95% UI 66.8-67.6) in 2000 to 73.5 years (72.8-74.3) in
2019. The total number of deaths increased from 50.7 million (49.5-51.9)
in 2000 to 56.5 million (53.7-59.2) in 2019. Under-5 deaths declined
from 9.6 million (9.1-10.3) in 2000 to 5.0 million (4.3-6.0) in 2019.
Global population increased by 25.7%, from 6.2 billion (6.0-6.3) in
2000 to 7.7 billion (7.5-8.0) in 2019. In 2019, 34 countries had
negative natural rates of increase; in 17 of these, the population
declined because immigration was not sufficient to counteract the
negative rate of decline. Globally, HALE increased from 58.6 years
(56.1-60.8) in 2000 to 63.5 years (60.8-66.1) in 2019. HALE increased in
202 of 204 countries and territories between 2000 and 2019.
Interpretation Over the past 20 years, fertility rates have been
dropping steadily and life expectancy has been increasing, with few
exceptions. Much of this change follows historical patterns linking
social and economic determinants, such as those captured by the GBD
Socio-demographic Index, with demographic outcomes. More recently,
several countries have experienced a combination of low fertility and
stagnating improvement in mortality rates, pushing more populations into
the late stages of the demographic transition. Tracking demographic
change and the emergence of new patterns will be essential for global
health monitoring. Copyright (C) 2020 The Author(s). Published by
Elsevier Ltd.
Filiaciones:
Wang, Haidong:
Univ Washington, Inst Hlth Metr & Evaluat, Seattle, WA 98195 USA
Green Published, hybrid, Green Accepted, Green Submitted
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